Christian Goulding
Research Interests: asset pricing (theoretical, empirical, quantitative), decisions under uncertainty, economics of information
Links: CV, Job Market Paper
Overview
Contact Information:
Education:
 Ph.D. & M.A., Finance; The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania; 20102015 (expected)
 M.S.E., Operations Research & Financial Engineering; Princeton University; 20052007
 B.A., Applied Math & M.S. IEOR; University of California, Berkeley; 19961998, 20012003
References:
The Wharton School
(215) 8984801
abel@wharton.upenn.edu

The Wharton School / Imperial College
(215) 8983629
allenf@wharton.upenn.edu


The Wharton School
(215) 8984378
kihlstro@wharton.upenn.edu

The Wharton School
(215) 8986206
krishna@wharton.upenn.edu


The Wharton School
(215) 8985734
stambaugh@wharton.upenn.edu

Honors & Awards:
 Wharton Finance Fellowship, 20142015
 University Fellowship for Distinguished Merit; 20102014
 Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences, Best Interactive Presentation Award, 1st Place, 2006
 Princeton Graduate Fellowship, 20052007
 Eugene CotaRobles Graduate Fellowship, 20012003
 California Alumni Leadership Scholarship, 19961997
Experience:
 Vice President—Professional Services, DFA Capital Management; 20082010
 Senior Research Consultant—Predictive Modeling, Travelers; 2007
 Quantitative Analyst, BWR&B Consultants; 20032005
 Actuarial Analyst, AIG; 19982000
Research
Research
Working Papers:
 Opposite Sides of a Skewed Bet: Implications and Evidence for Forecast Dispersion and Returns
(Job Market Paper)
I present theory and evidence regarding the impacts of return skewness and dispersion in analysts' forecasts on average stock returns. Prices that induce investors to take opposite sides of a skewed risk deviate from fundamental value on average in the direction of skewness. The magnitude of such deviations depends on investors' confidence in fundamentals. Dispersion in analysts' forecasts tends to reduce that confidence, requiring larger deviations to induce offsetting trades. Consistent with the theory's equilibrium implications, I show that skewness and forecast dispersion have a joint impact, yielding an average return gap of 1.61% monthly (19.3% annualized) between stocks in the 5th and 95th percentiles by skewness and dispersion. I also show that forecast dispersion has no marginal impact without skewness and that higher risk or risk aversion is associated with a deepening of their joint effect. These otherwise anomalous discoveries comprise new significant crosssectional features of stock returns.
 Preference Irregularities and Asset Pricing Regularities (with Mark Clements) [Abstract]
 Skewness, Forecast Dispersion, and Pricing [Abstract]
Refereed Publications:
 Detection and Identification of an Unobservable Change in the Distribution of a MarkovModulated Random Sequence (with S. Dayanik), IEEE Transactions on Information Theory, 2009 [Abstract]
 Bayesian Sequential Change Diagnosis (with S. Dayanik and H. V. Poor), Mathematics of Operations Research, 2008 [Abstract]
 Joint Detection and Identification of an Unobservable Change in a Random Sequence (with S. Dayanik and H.V. Poor), Information Science and Systems, 2007 [Abstract]
Research in Progress:
 Emergence of Fundamental Uncertainty in Coordination around Radical Innovation [Abstract]
 Real Decisions as a Resolution of the GrossmanStiglitz NoEquilibrium Paradox [Abstract]
 Opposite Sides of a Skewed Bet: Implications and Evidence for Excess Volatility
Research Assistantships:
 Inattention to the Stock Market, Leverage, Q Theory; Prof. Andrew B. Abel
 Corporate Finance, Feedback Effects, Synergies; Prof. Alex Edmans
 Asset Pricing, Ambiguity Aversion; Prof. Philipp Illeditsch
 AssetBacked Securities; Prof. Luke Taylor
Teaching
Teaching Assistantships:
 Capital Markets (MBA/Undergrad); The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania
 Corporate Finance (MBA/Undergrad); The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania
 Regression and Applied Time Series (Grad/Undergrad); Princeton University
 Dynamic Programming (Undergrad); Princeton University
 Fundamentals of Probability and Statistics (Undergrad); Princeton University