Hongye Guo

Hongye Guo, Hengjie Ai, Ravi Bansal, Amir Yaron (Working), Identifying preference for early resolution from asset prices.

Winston Wei Dou, Hui Chen, Hongye Guo, Yan Ji (Working), Feedback and Contagion through Distressed Competition.

Hongye Guo (Working), Earnings Extrapolation and Predictable Stock Market Returns.

Abstract: The U.S. stock market’s return during the first month of a quarter correlates strongly with returns in future months, but the correlation is negative (positive) if the future month is (is not) the first month of a quarter. These effects offset, leaving the market return with its weak unconditional predictive ability known to the literature. The pattern accords with a model in which investors extrapolate announced earnings to predict future earnings, not recognizing that earnings in the first month of a quarter are inherently less predictable than in other months. Survey data support this model, as does out-of-sample evidence across industries and international markets. These results seriously challenge the Efficient Market Hypothesis and advance a novel mechanism of expectation formation.

Hongye Guo and Jessica Wachter (Working), “Superstitious” Investors.