James Paron

Maxwell Miller, James Paron, Jessica Wachter (Working), Sovereign default and the decline in interest rates.

Abstract: Sovereign debt yields have declined dramatically over the last half-century. Standard explanations, including aging populations and increases in asset demand from abroad, encounter difficulties when confronted with the full range of evidence. We propose an explanation based on a decline in inflation and default risk, which we argue is more consistent with the long-run nature of the interest rate decline. We show that a model with investment, inventory storage, and sovereign default captures the decline in interest rates, the stability of equity valuation ratios, and the recent reduction in investment and output growth coinciding with the binding zero lower bound.

James Paron (Working), Heterogeneous-agent asset pricing: Timing and pricing idiosyncratic risks.

Abstract: This paper studies the importance of idiosyncratic endowment shocks for aggregate asset prices in a generalized continuous-time framework that accommodates both jumps and recursive preferences. I show that, regardless of the presence of jumps, countercyclical cross-sectional risk is irrelevant to risk premia if and only if (i) all agents have time-additive power utility and (ii) cross-sectional risk is uncorrelated with aggregate consumption risk. To quantify the relevance of these conditions, I calibrate a general-equilibrium model with a continuum of recursive-utility agents who face uninsurable idiosyncratic human-capital disasters. The model explains both asset pricing moments and cross-sectional income moments from Social Security Administration income data.